( In Manhattan Libertarians Serf
City tabloids
included in the bling bags of 2nd Heartland global Climate
Conference ) Basic
Temperature Physics of Radiantly Heated Balls
Implements of the classic Stefan-Boltzmann and Kirchoff laws
which
very tightly constrain the mean temperature of the planet .
Extending
the implementation to spectra so that the effect of changes in the
saturation of CO2's couple of skinny spectral lines can be quantitively and
experimentally tested is quite straight forward . If you'd like to support getting
it done quickly , get in touch . -- Bob A ,
( 20080724 | Around June I
finally gained an understanding of the appropriate analysis for colored
balls . The statements about gray bodies remains the same but I now see
colored balls will come to a different mean temperature depending on
the difference in correlation between them and their source of
irradiance and their "night" side . Given that CO2 has essentially just
2 narrow absorption bands which are pretty fully saturated at
consentrations which are too low to sustain plant life ( about half the
current concentration ) , I expect the quantitative effect of changes
in the current concentration to be very small . But Now I know how to
calculate it . )
Personal Experimental results :
A natural ping pong ball and one
painted Flat Black asymptote to within one degree K when held in bright
sun at 2500m ( 1/3 up in atmosphere ) .
I think doing this experiment correctly
in a vacuum would make a
gangbusters MythBusters
episode.
20070324
: Heartand Conference Follow up . Gerlich & Tscheuschner have
detailed physical derivation of my analysis . Am Studying .
20070130
: 2 excellent new articles .
20070311
: 2 more excellent links
20070627
: The arguments against the Global Socialist Warming Fear Mongers is
becoming overwhelming . All they have is the Global Statists money and
megaphones . Their duplicity and distortions are being continually
exposed .
20080125 | Another Junto
discussion with Perry Metzger led me to analyse more closely the logic
of the Temperature
of the Earth discussion on the Wikipedia page on the
Stefan Boltzmann law . My arguments on the associated
Talk page have caused significant changes in that
article already . More is needed . Briefy
The idea that the
temperature of an object can depend on its albedo , in particular the
4th root of its albedo , leads to absurdities such as the following :
If the inner chamber of a vacuum bottle were coated with magnesium
oxide with an albedo of about .9 then on the basis of a 4th root
relationship , one would expect it's interior to settle at about 0.56
the temperature of the room the bottle is in , say about -100
centigrade .
Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice. From what I've tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To say that for distruction ice Is also great And would suffice. Robert Frost
I want to pause here
and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been
called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely
pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks.
Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of
scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is
already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees
on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.
Michael
Crichton : Aliens Cause Global Warming , Caltech
Michelin Lecture
It essentially follows from the Zeroth law
of thermodynamics which implies that without a source of heat things
come to thermal equilibrium with their surroundings that , in
particular , the mean surface temperature of the earth is totally
determined by the size and temperature of the sun and our distance from
it .
The Wikipedia article
under the heading Derivation of temperature relation between
earth and sun is the first place I have seen the geometry
worked out . This provides the null hypothisis against which any
claimed deviation of mean global temperature ascribed to changes in the
composition of the atmosphere must be measured . Indeed , by Kirchhoff's
law of thermal radiation
that a poor reflector is a good emitter, and visa versa
, I believe NO deviation is possible . The effect of essentially a more
insulative atmosphere is warmer nights and in fact suppressed daytime
peak temperatures and more uniform global temperature distribution , ie
, warmer poles compensated by somewhat cooler tropics . |
thu.sep.20050929 |
The
bottom line ( from the Wikipedia derivation ) is that the mean
temperature of homogeniously colored sphere is given by
I have yet to see anything other than hand waving to explain how any
changes to the atmosphere can alter that . Note that this is
probably the first place you have seen what must be the Null Hypothesis
for any theory of planetary temperature . |
thu.aug.20060810 |
--
| 20071002 | I've
given up doing any fancy editing and splicing of the video of the
experiment I did last spring with black , white and silver ping pong
balls in the Colorado sun last spring . I've just uploaded the last
clip I took because it was clouding up and I had completed all the
relavant permutations I could think of . The temperatures indicated are
pretty typical tho . ( note the thermometer on the left
tended to read 0.2c below the others . ) The GW
alarmists claim that minute changes in the reflectivity of the planet
will make major changes in its mean temperature . I found no difference
between a flat black painted and a natural white ping-pong ball and at
most about 2c with a "chrome" painted ball . I also got a feeling for
what a small change the at most 0.8c increase in temperature this
century is . It's hard to get thermometer reading to be stable within
less than ~ 0.2c . I'd really like to see this experiment done
"professionally" in a vacuum , and I'd really like
to see the equations which predict exactly how much heating or cooling
different paint jobs will produce . Despite the lifestyles of millions
riding on this science , I have failed to find such basic equations
anywhere on the web .
--
There is a very substantial seasonal
effect due to the asymmetry of distribution of land and ocean and the
very reflective Antarctic , and the resulting difference in albedo , of
the north and south hemispheres combined with the 23.5 degree tilt of
the earth's axis . See this
email exchange for a discussion . The note immediately below
goes thru the physics .
-- #Perry
The very illuminating discussion on
"alternative energy" with Perry Metzger , who is far more
computationally facile than I am , starts at message
2351 on the NYC Junto group , It first
discusses how much solar energy is available at midwinter in New York .
Perry computes the value from the basic physics ; I do it by table look
up on the web , but our answers agree within a factor of 2 .
Even more interesting is his
computation in message
2377 of the temperature of 2 disks with white
and black sides , one with its black side facing the sun , and the
other with its white side towards the sun . There are just a few more
emails in the thread ending with message 2393 , but it is pretty well
summarized in my reply , message
2390 .
The evidence is becoming
overwhelming that CO2 does NOT affect mean global temperature .
on the other hand , evidence is mounting that it IS making the planet
greener .
The only real question is if
rationality can prevail before the Global Governments do too much harm
.
History’s Verdict
I agree with Professor Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who said, "future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early twenty-first century’s developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a rollback of the industrial age."
Vaclav Klaus, president , Czech
Republic , Human Freedom, Not Climate, Is at Risk
in ENVIRONMENT
& CLIMATE NEWS
2007/09
Discussion, calculations and
references
and Gore Gored A Science-based response to Al
Gore’s Global Warming Commentary in London’s Sunday Telegraph 19
November 2006 . both by Christopher Monckton, 3rd
Viscount Monckton of Brenchley
including Carbon
Dioxide and Global Change: Sherwood & Craig Idso : A
critique of the 2007 03 26 testimony
of James E. Hansen to the US House of
Representatives | 20070628 |
Al Gore and James
Hansen remind me of Pinky
and the Brain , tho I'm not sure who is which .
"While, therefore, the group of
people who have been selected for diminished lives, suffering, and
death from energy rationing and the resulting technological decline is
larger than that ordinarily associated with genocide, the number of
likely deaths is also much larger than in previous genocides. We think
the use of this term is appropriate and will not be confusing to the
reader."
Lawrence Solomon, National Post ,
http://www.urban-renaissance.org
. Great 10 part series on highly credentialed individuals poking holes
in the climate scam
"the father of the science of
modern climatology."
An
Unrepentant Prognosticator
Climatologist George Kukla still believes an ice age is likely :
"The only thing to worry about global warming is the damage that can be
done by worrying. Why are some scientists worried? Perhaps because they
feel that to stop worrying may mean to stop being paid."
Interview with Christopher
Horner author
of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and
Environmentalism. Interesting
history of the "hockey stick"
CO2
and AlarmismS.
Fred Singer : ... "By contrast, the federal climate-change program
report shows quite clearly that greenhouse models cannot explain the
observed patterns of warming. (See esp. Fig. 5.4G at www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport.)
This disparity leads to the inescapable conclusion that most of the
warming is of non-greenhouse origin and therefore part of a natural
climate cycle. ...
... There is no
evidence confirming a positive linkage between the level of carbon
dioxide and temperature changes. If there is such a linkage, it is a
reverse nature. In other words, it is not carbon dioxide that
influences the temperature on Earth, but it just the reverse:
temperature fluctuations are caused by solar activity influence the
concentration of carbon dioxide.
... Another facet of
the project is to determine the economic feasibility of running a farm
on wind-generated electricity. That idea is not proving to be
promising, according to Kingman.
"It doesn't make sense economically to displace (existing) power on the
farm," Kingman said.
Unless a farmer could sell extra power or had grant money, he could not
offset the expense of building a turbine and its maintenance and the
cost of wiring the wind-power source to the farm, Kingman explained.
Alt
Energy Encyclopedia "photovoltaic cell is
typically about 9%
to 14% for commercially available cells."
Physics of Radiant
Barrier Foil Actually by a
building insulation vendor . Does insulation change the average
interior temperature of an unheated building ?
Note : I reserve the
right to post all communications I receive or generate to CoSy website
for further reflection . Contact
: Bob Armstrong
; About this page :
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