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Westergaard9711


John Westergaard with Lunch Speaker Ed Yardeni of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell

See also : www.westergaard.com and Westergaard Year 2000 : www.y2ktimebomb.com

                                                                                                                         ============================: THU.NOV,971106 :============================                                                         " 16 companies each made six presentations during the day in the                                                                comfortable ambiance of a first class Waldorf suite to on average 4                                                            qualified investment professionals per session. "                                                                                              | x \ 4 6 16    |>| 4 24 384    |                                                                         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -                                                    
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|9:3| @ Isonics ( ISON ISONW )  www.isonics.com  JimAlexander ;                                                                 |9:8| specialty chem . enriched stable isotopes - ex GE . SanJose . Mix of                                                      busn & Tek mngt bk 5 PhDs . GE core busn customer , & MD near NIH . Russia                                                     R&D & mfg . Stable - ~ radioactive : C12 & C13 , dif weight or magnetic                                                        optical , & neutron absorbtion ,                                                                                               C naturally .99 C12 , separate to > .99 C-13 - GE isotopically pure Diamond                                                   . C13 densest .                                                                                                                Zinc Carbon || Silicon | Natural  .0001 , Si28 500 - 1k | $ % gram                                                              , Gold $11 | Gas centrifuge .                                                                                                 Uses : Enhanced performance - Si  . Zn for Nuc corrosion inhibition .                                                           Explosive marker .  Sulfer isotopes to tag DNA .                                                                               Carbon ultrapure                                                                                                              Enhanced - Si powerdensity disipation - .999 + Si28 .6 better thermal                                                          conductivity . Improved yield | Simple substitution for normal Si for                                                          existing processes . Natural Si : 28 .92  29 .05  30 .03 | go to > .999 Si28                                                    Have exclusive rights to key US Patents . produced Si28 epitaxial wafers -                                                      World 1st - directly suitable for fab .                                                                                       Working w Bell Labs & Stanford , Yale - testing electron mobility etc .                                                         w take 1-2 yrs                                                                                                               Mfg in Russia & US separation .        JV w wafer suppler                                                                      Rev Sources : License fees frm Yale patents                                                                                    Si28 wafer sales |  comes out as SiF4 - Silane gas . then 4 micron layer                                                                                                                                                                                      Healthcare Diagnostic breath tests  - H-Pylori ( ulcer ) .                                                                      Eat  C13 urea , metabolized by bacteria , measure C13 in breath over time .                                                   Looking to become very low cost producer , now #3 largest producer .                                                                                                                                                                                          Core Busn : Depleted Zinc - reduces corrosion - reduces radiation exposure                                                     from iradiated isotope .  300 Power plants  - $50-70M % yr mkt . have .1 of                                                     mkt -  Isonics 'only' DZ supplier  .  changes Oxide on Stainless Steal .                                                       Z-67 can be used in Med Imaging  .  Optical materials .                                                                        5 isotope   Z64 bad - becomes radioactive .                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Rev : 97 1.535 M , 4.9 M $ IPO , don`t need much money til start expanding                                                     was started on friend & family  - so tightly fun .                                                                             IPO price 5.8  9 , now 5 . | warrent ISONW @ 14 . | Shares out  5.3M                                                          basically all on cash flow of own sales .                                                                                      Positioned for explosive growth ( in Si-28 )                                                                                   using Russian enrichment plants - |9:46| could now buy a plant economically                                                    |9:53|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       |10:2| SunPharm (SUNP) StefanBorg Pres & CEO : ex - U Fl . Houston Biotech                                                      small molelcule polyamine  analogues & metal chelators .                                                                      W WarnerLambert  & Nippon Kayaku . Phase 2 on anti-diahrea                                                                     New class of small molecules gain entry due to close resemblance - once                                                         inside prevent cell division , 12 yr of res @ major instition - $6M NCI                                                        grants .                                                                                                                       amino strings 2- 4 amino grps separated by a few carbons - positively                                                          charged grps w carbon insulators - look like spermines - N insulateo                                                           correspond w phospates on DNA backbone . - lubricates messaging                                                                ~ antisins . also pump out normal pa.s . So indiscriminate intake , Drug                                                       concetrates because blocked from expulsion .                                                                                   Skin cancer in Vivo results . Liv Kid Mel - stays in Melinoma even after 2                                                     wks . depletes cancer cells of needed PAs .                                                                                    like old antiodies connected to cruse missle heads .                                                                           half life of 7 min in blood .  goes to tumor where taken up .                                                                  Done > 100 patients - Lung prostate pancreas skin colon . Side effect -                                                        nausia , constipation - no hair loss . Addresses .2 of cancers .                                                               AIDS related diarrhea - shuts down secretion in GI tract , & relaxes . In                                                      Phase 2 . Being looked at for Ulcerative Colitis @ U of C .                                                                    JayAbella : redistribution of body weight ? no .                                                                               AIDs patients had allready failed normal treatment .  12 mg dose - long                                                         term effect . metabolite has effect too . Phase 3 w be ~ 100 patients .                                                       .28 of 500k AIDS pop have chronic Diarrhea . goes on 4-6 mo .                                                                  Yearly charge $14500 , w diarrhea : 24500 .                                                                                    Vs Sandoz Statin .                                                                                                            Iron chelator - vs hydroxirrea . cheat cell of Fe .                                                                            WarnerLambert paid 2.6M$ in R&D & adv royalty for cancer polyamine .                                                           U  Fl : sponsored Res `92-98 .                                                                                                 Board of Dir & Advisors - from bunch of pharm cos  .                                                                           Destraxamine for Thalacemia - screaming for beter drug .                                                                        chelators isolated frm bacteria . Berjeron working on .                                                                       Involved in free radical catalysis - in arthritis  .                                                                           SUNP . 28M mkt cap . 5+ M shares out .  2.8 of 5.7M shares public float                                                         cash on hand 5.4M$  - Burn 1M$ % quarter .                                                                                     Avg Day Vol 20k .  .32 institutional holding .                                                                                 Warrent @ 4$ .                                                                                                                 Contract everything out . RonSanda does 483`s on everybody . |10:53|                                                           comp mkt cap - 80 - 200 M$  frm VC funding .                                                                                  Biochemist attending is impressed .                                                                                                                                                                                                                          |11:6| TravelPort (TPOA) . Rochester NY . 9 Co owned properites on thruway                                                      exits .  ( undervalued real estate )  | 7 leased . options to purchase .                                                       9M $ facility in OH :  w restaurant - pizza hut -- sunoco  - Roadway Inn .                                                     Separate car & truck entrances . Truck repair shop .                                                                           < 30$ for drivers , mkt rates for civilians .                                                                                  Automated car & truck islands .                                                                                                Refurbished locations  BuckHorn restaruants .                                                                                  Store w gifts to CB stuff .  Individual free showers w fuel . 6$ otherwise                                                     StanlessSteel & tile restrooms .                                                                                               Express Pizza hut .                                                                                                            Revs ? | '%' N 137 153 165 207 |>| 137 1.12 1.08 1.25        | 94-97                                                           profits didn`t rise w increase in diesel .  cost + to fleets .04-.05 $ %gal                                                    also do fixed price for months - hedged on merc . .6 of busn w larger                                                          fleets .                                                                                                                      Sales Des motel repair   135 8 20 16 17 21   | 27 12 11 4 13 33 |proportions                                                   Net | 1.89E6 % .34 |>| 5558823.53  | .34 % share in                                                                             .34 .3 .3  last 3 yrs .                                                                                                       EBITDA  | '%' N 6.5 7.8 8.1 9.3  |>| 6.5 1.2 1.04 1.15                                                                        3 mo ending July | rev 56.4 vs 46.5  |  EBITDA  3.2 vs 2.6                                                                      Net .901 vs .690  |  EPS - .13  vs .1                                                                                         Assets 64M$ . Cash 4M$ | SharEq 16.7 . convertable debt 4.65E6 callable in                                                     `98 , coversion price now 2.8$ .                                                                                               7.5 tot shares out , price ~ 4 |                                                                                               | .63 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.25 | stoc close 0430 recent years .                                                                Truck Stop industry :  35.2G$ in `96 | growth  .05 % yr .                                                                      .75 current Truck Stops independently ownd  . aging owners willing sellers .                                                    Acqs to date -  5 acquisitios  13 properties , build just 3 .                                                                 Looking for >= 15M$ revs . Buy in basis of RealEstate value .                                                                  Baltimore cost 16M$ , purchase for $4 .                                                                                        Lot of same store growth from last cpl yr renovation to corp image .                                                           Mngt owns some of R.E. Bought 5 locations frm TruckStop America .                                                              E.Phillips leases RE to co & supplies fuel to 3 facilities .                                                                   order 5k barrel amounts piggybacked to reach 25K barrel for pipeline                                                           purchase . Don`t sell booze . Non fuel growth rate .04 | Motel contract w                                                      Yellow Freight . as franchisee of Motel chain . .8 occupancy . Truckers on                                                     week , traveler on weekend .                                                                                                   Consolidation preasure frm tek of fuel islands .                                                                                Looking for properties which can be converted , w good look , available for                                                    R.E. value .                                                                                                                  Continue new builds - latest design & materials .                                                                              ~ 2500 independent truck stops . Look to Franchise - receive Natnl mkting ,                                                    vol discounts . Finished legal work .                                                                                          Shops - value pricing - no quibble guarentee .                                                                                 Only public co in busn . Are larger private . Undervalued R.E.                                                                 12 P%E at 4$ .                                                                                                                 Car traffic building .  Are directly mkting to RVs . but ~ overnight .                                                          Working w GoodSam .                                                                                                           In 7 states  NH thru IN . looking @ AK , FL                                                                                    Competition : Chains : Flying J ( UT ) , Petro ( TX ) , Pilot ,                                                                Travel Ctrs of Amer ( Union 76 ) 100 centers ( down mkt )                                                                      Newest place > 35E6 $ rev % yr .  look @ 2-3 acqs , new build 1 % yr                                                            5 franchises . Some attractive regional chains .   |11:58|                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LUNCH : - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ -                                                     

Ed Yardeni

John Westergaard listening with "AdamSmith"
                                                               |12:42| LUNCH : LouisXVI room | JohnWestergaard : Welcome to 20th ann conf .                                                    US RealTel IPO next wk . w SamZell .                                                                                           Lot of problems getting WBN up . ScotRhodes is teky . Investment report .                                                      Cocktails in Park Av S Suite on fl4 | 40k page views in Oct |                                                                 EdYardeni : [ Great Site . Chk it ] Deutsche Morgan Grenfell                                                              Only economist saying Y2K w cause global recession . Do believe                                                                end of cold war beginning of new era . Steve Roach - War of the Morgans ( w                                                    JP ) End of 50 yr war - always trade barrier . afterward get deflation .                                                       . now Central banks wrongly raising interest rates . China epicenter of                                                        deflation . New era only means Inflation is Dead . Chances of recession in                                                     2000 : 1.0 | Theory of relativity - `99 mother of all corrections - .25 -.3                                                     population w flee . In competative mkt , no protecition frm Ted Kenedy or                                                      Pat Buchanan | Alfred Marshall - Perfect Competition - Keynes teacher . Why                                                    are profits hi if can`t raise price - innovation .                                                                            Wages should go up faster than prices since access to larger markets .                                                         Risks : need more yuppies - Evil alternative system : Corruption - if can                                                      steal something & sell on free mkt - that capialism . Japan has real problem                                                   . problem - not fair                                                                                                           Y2K : changing all the lightbulbs in LasVagas in afternoon .                                                                   changing all the rivets on GoldenGate during rush hr . Trivial but                                                             overwhelming . . embedded chips . We w stress test whole system in 2000 .                                                      Worry abt .1 not fixed . Make sure not not owed refund frm IRS in 2000 .                                                       | hard to talk to programmers - debugging very time consuming . one change                                                      can have unintended consequences | OMB leaving 1 mo 9912 for testing .                                                         ArthurGross IRS has 110 page memo on Web - plea for contractor to handle .                                                    Sen Bennet subcommittee : Euro - has no idea | can`t get freight cars to go                                                    by scanner - too congested . Phone overload when people want chks .                                                             EY told cmtte : .4 chance of recession .                                                                                      .22 of electricity Nuc. Newest 15 yrs old . CIO NRC : GE says safety syss                                                      not date dependent . But other things could cause wrong input .                                                                Embedded chips . Fed Gov Kelly started working on in `95 .                                                                      BillGates is just building Bullet proof home w underground driveway .                                                         5 stages of remediation . Lawyers w be asking where were we .                                                                  CEOs confess know nothing abt CIO tek . but must know CFO money .                                                                                                                                                                                             |13:34| John : w Moynahan - 30M proprietary lines of code .GAO has found                                                        another 34 M lines of code involved in paying SS . Defense is a disaster .                                                     WSJ doesn`t take seriously .                                                                                                   EY : very few recognize how tek patched together like MIR .                                                                     IRS says we don`t know what we don`t know .                                                                                    Bank needing to check if borrowers  Y2K exposed .                                                                             Aud : To solve : just tie to global warming .                                                                                 |( | TS ts |>| 9711101106 | Right after the Yardeni`s talk , I pointed out                                                    to the fellow who made this comment that at least the Y2K problem had a                                                        real foundation . Cf :  CoSy/Views/Warm  )|                                                                                                 Steve Roach (?) befuddlement w whether productivity increasing . Only way                                                      can have macro econ #s make sense .                                                                                            S&P 500 Sales % employee increasing  .05 - .06 since `80s .                                                                   |( | TS ts |>| 9711101042 | Just noticed that in my list of annual dates ,                                                   I had the Anniversy of the Brooklyn Bridge outside my window listed as ,                                                       essentially , 870102 . To make it good for the centurys , just 1 additional                                                    digit is needed : 8870102 , to uniquely represent it , not 2 .                                                                 It should also be pointed out , that Y2K alarmists seem to be very focused                                                     on , essentially either the ASCII character , or the BinaryCodedDecimal                                                        representation of dates . Perhaps the majority of systems store dates in                                                       some more compact form . This has 2 implications :                                                                               0 : Many date overflows will occur ( and in fact have occured ) on system                                                        specific dates having nothing to do with the turn of the century . See                                                          CoSy/Views/Y2K  ;                                                                          1 : There is plenty of space at the locations holding current such date                                                         representations to hold century information .                                                                             

John and "arch rival" Bob Flaherty
of Equities Magazine
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               |15:34|  RealTel  USRT - selling | couple 100 k shares @ 4.5 for mkt cap of                                                     30M .  |15:42| PerryRuda co-founder : largest landloard of telecom sites                                                        Telecom tenants . need for Access to real Estate : Telecom giants w pay                                                        Billions for access to properties . Site Acq 1 @ time is costly . 2 - 3 k                                                      antenna sites for manhattan cell sites - w 2-3k NY lawyers .                                                                  RealTel Natnl Antenna Grid - pool of sites - master leased . 1 landlord ,                                                      1 lease , 1 contact , 1 check . Giants lining up to gain access .                                                              JordanGlasoff : `90 telecom dereg act - gave landlord right to charge for                                                      access . 100k`s antenas need to be deployed . RealTel has cornered mkt from                                                    major REITs etc . All sign same lease . Sam Zel WayneHeizenga  NealBloom ,                                                     2k properties , another 8700 in negotiation . further 27000 have proposals .                                                   RT provieds mngt , RE , legal professionals . Mngt RE background CRA telecom                                                   site selection co - provide RF engineering consulting . Landlords don`t have                                                   expertise . MasterLease specific to telcom access issues . Pure gravy income                                                   from waste space . Access to property occupants . Control gateway to tenets                                                    of property . charge .01 | expect 100k sites by 2000 .                                                                         need 150k new antennas in next 5 yrs . Estimating .05 mkt penetration .                                                        5 yr lease w 4x renewal to telecom . + 250k$ for station instalation .                                                         studying L.A. - Brasil & Argentina . |16:7|                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

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