John Westergaard with Lunch Speaker Ed Yardeni of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell
| Modified | DDT |>| FRI.NOV,971114,11:5-5 | | CoSy/Home ; CoSy/Current | © Coherent Systems Inc . |
See also : www.westergaard.com and Westergaard Year 2000 : www.y2ktimebomb.com
============================: THU.NOV,971106 :============================ " 16 companies each made six presentations during the day in the comfortable ambiance of a first class Waldorf suite to on average 4 qualified investment professionals per session. " | x \ 4 6 16 |>| 4 24 384 | - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
|9:3| @ Isonics ( ISON ISONW ) www.isonics.com JimAlexander ; |9:8| specialty chem . enriched stable isotopes - ex GE . SanJose . Mix of busn & Tek mngt bk 5 PhDs . GE core busn customer , & MD near NIH . Russia R&D & mfg . Stable - ~ radioactive : C12 & C13 , dif weight or magnetic optical , & neutron absorbtion , C naturally .99 C12 , separate to > .99 C-13 - GE isotopically pure Diamond . C13 densest . Zinc Carbon || Silicon | Natural .0001 , Si28 500 - 1k | $ % gram , Gold $11 | Gas centrifuge . Uses : Enhanced performance - Si . Zn for Nuc corrosion inhibition . Explosive marker . Sulfer isotopes to tag DNA . Carbon ultrapure Enhanced - Si powerdensity disipation - .999 + Si28 .6 better thermal conductivity . Improved yield | Simple substitution for normal Si for existing processes . Natural Si : 28 .92 29 .05 30 .03 | go to > .999 Si28 Have exclusive rights to key US Patents . produced Si28 epitaxial wafers - World 1st - directly suitable for fab . Working w Bell Labs & Stanford , Yale - testing electron mobility etc . w take 1-2 yrs Mfg in Russia & US separation . JV w wafer suppler Rev Sources : License fees frm Yale patents Si28 wafer sales | comes out as SiF4 - Silane gas . then 4 micron layer Healthcare Diagnostic breath tests - H-Pylori ( ulcer ) . Eat C13 urea , metabolized by bacteria , measure C13 in breath over time . Looking to become very low cost producer , now #3 largest producer . Core Busn : Depleted Zinc - reduces corrosion - reduces radiation exposure from iradiated isotope . 300 Power plants - $50-70M % yr mkt . have .1 of mkt - Isonics 'only' DZ supplier . changes Oxide on Stainless Steal . Z-67 can be used in Med Imaging . Optical materials . 5 isotope Z64 bad - becomes radioactive . Rev : 97 1.535 M , 4.9 M $ IPO , don`t need much money til start expanding was started on friend & family - so tightly fun . IPO price 5.8 9 , now 5 . | warrent ISONW @ 14 . | Shares out 5.3M basically all on cash flow of own sales . Positioned for explosive growth ( in Si-28 ) using Russian enrichment plants - |9:46| could now buy a plant economically |9:53| |10:2| SunPharm (SUNP) StefanBorg Pres & CEO : ex - U Fl . Houston Biotech small molelcule polyamine analogues & metal chelators . W WarnerLambert & Nippon Kayaku . Phase 2 on anti-diahrea New class of small molecules gain entry due to close resemblance - once inside prevent cell division , 12 yr of res @ major instition - $6M NCI grants . amino strings 2- 4 amino grps separated by a few carbons - positively charged grps w carbon insulators - look like spermines - N insulateo correspond w phospates on DNA backbone . - lubricates messaging ~ antisins . also pump out normal pa.s . So indiscriminate intake , Drug concetrates because blocked from expulsion . Skin cancer in Vivo results . Liv Kid Mel - stays in Melinoma even after 2 wks . depletes cancer cells of needed PAs . like old antiodies connected to cruse missle heads . half life of 7 min in blood . goes to tumor where taken up . Done > 100 patients - Lung prostate pancreas skin colon . Side effect - nausia , constipation - no hair loss . Addresses .2 of cancers . AIDS related diarrhea - shuts down secretion in GI tract , & relaxes . In Phase 2 . Being looked at for Ulcerative Colitis @ U of C . JayAbella : redistribution of body weight ? no . AIDs patients had allready failed normal treatment . 12 mg dose - long term effect . metabolite has effect too . Phase 3 w be ~ 100 patients . .28 of 500k AIDS pop have chronic Diarrhea . goes on 4-6 mo . Yearly charge $14500 , w diarrhea : 24500 . Vs Sandoz Statin . Iron chelator - vs hydroxirrea . cheat cell of Fe . WarnerLambert paid 2.6M$ in R&D & adv royalty for cancer polyamine . U Fl : sponsored Res `92-98 . Board of Dir & Advisors - from bunch of pharm cos . Destraxamine for Thalacemia - screaming for beter drug . chelators isolated frm bacteria . Berjeron working on . Involved in free radical catalysis - in arthritis . SUNP . 28M mkt cap . 5+ M shares out . 2.8 of 5.7M shares public float cash on hand 5.4M$ - Burn 1M$ % quarter . Avg Day Vol 20k . .32 institutional holding . Warrent @ 4$ . Contract everything out . RonSanda does 483`s on everybody . |10:53| comp mkt cap - 80 - 200 M$ frm VC funding . Biochemist attending is impressed . |11:6| TravelPort (TPOA) . Rochester NY . 9 Co owned properites on thruway exits . ( undervalued real estate ) | 7 leased . options to purchase . 9M $ facility in OH : w restaurant - pizza hut -- sunoco - Roadway Inn . Separate car & truck entrances . Truck repair shop . < 30$ for drivers , mkt rates for civilians . Automated car & truck islands . Refurbished locations BuckHorn restaruants . Store w gifts to CB stuff . Individual free showers w fuel . 6$ otherwise StanlessSteel & tile restrooms . Express Pizza hut . Revs ? | '%' N‘ 137 153 165 207 |>| 137 1.12 1.08 1.25 | 94-97 profits didn`t rise w increase in diesel . cost + to fleets .04-.05 $ %gal also do fixed price for months - hedged on merc . .6 of busn w larger fleets . Sales Des motel repair 135 8 20 16 17 21 | 27 12 11 4 13 33 |proportions Net | 1.89E6 % .34 |>| 5558823.53 | .34 % share in .34 .3 .3 last 3 yrs . EBITDA | '%' N‘ 6.5 7.8 8.1 9.3 |>| 6.5 1.2 1.04 1.15 3 mo ending July | rev 56.4 vs 46.5 | EBITDA 3.2 vs 2.6 Net .901 vs .690 | EPS - .13 vs .1 Assets 64M$ . Cash 4M$ | SharEq 16.7 . convertable debt 4.65E6 callable in `98 , coversion price now 2.8$ . 7.5 tot shares out , price ~ 4 | | .63 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.25 | stoc close 0430 recent years . Truck Stop industry : 35.2G$ in `96 | growth .05 % yr . .75 current Truck Stops independently ownd . aging owners willing sellers . Acqs to date - 5 acquisitios 13 properties , build just 3 . Looking for >= 15M$ revs . Buy in basis of RealEstate value . Baltimore cost 16M$ , purchase for $4 . Lot of same store growth from last cpl yr renovation to corp image . Mngt owns some of R.E. Bought 5 locations frm TruckStop America . E.Phillips leases RE to co & supplies fuel to 3 facilities . order 5k barrel amounts piggybacked to reach 25K barrel for pipeline purchase . Don`t sell booze . Non fuel growth rate .04 | Motel contract w Yellow Freight . as franchisee of Motel chain . .8 occupancy . Truckers on week , traveler on weekend . Consolidation preasure frm tek of fuel islands . Looking for properties which can be converted , w good look , available for R.E. value . Continue new builds - latest design & materials . ~ 2500 independent truck stops . Look to Franchise - receive Natnl mkting , vol discounts . Finished legal work . Shops - value pricing - no quibble guarentee . Only public co in busn . Are larger private . Undervalued R.E. 12 P%E at 4$ . Car traffic building . Are directly mkting to RVs . but ~ overnight . Working w GoodSam . In 7 states NH thru IN . looking @ AK , FL Competition : Chains : Flying J ( UT ) , Petro ( TX ) , Pilot , Travel Ctrs of Amer ( Union 76 ) 100 centers ( down mkt ) Newest place > 35E6 $ rev % yr . look @ 2-3 acqs , new build 1 % yr 5 franchises . Some attractive regional chains . |11:58| LUNCH : - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ - \/ -
 Ed Yardeni |  John Westergaard listening with "AdamSmith" |
|12:42| LUNCH : LouisXVI room | JohnWestergaard : Welcome to 20th ann conf . US RealTel IPO next wk . w SamZell . Lot of problems getting WBN up . ScotRhodes is teky . Investment report . Cocktails in Park Av S Suite on fl4 | 40k page views in Oct | EdYardeni : [ Great Site . Chk it ] Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Only economist saying Y2K w cause global recession . Do believe end of cold war beginning of new era . Steve Roach - War of the Morgans ( w JP ) End of 50 yr war - always trade barrier . afterward get deflation . . now Central banks wrongly raising interest rates . China epicenter of deflation . New era only means Inflation is Dead . Chances of recession in 2000 : 1.0 | Theory of relativity - `99 mother of all corrections - .25 -.3 population w flee . In competative mkt , no protecition frm Ted Kenedy or Pat Buchanan | Alfred Marshall - Perfect Competition - Keynes teacher . Why are profits hi if can`t raise price - innovation . Wages should go up faster than prices since access to larger markets . Risks : need more yuppies - Evil alternative system : Corruption - if can steal something & sell on free mkt - that capialism . Japan has real problem . problem - not fair Y2K : changing all the lightbulbs in LasVagas in afternoon . changing all the rivets on GoldenGate during rush hr . Trivial but overwhelming . . embedded chips . We w stress test whole system in 2000 . Worry abt .1 not fixed . Make sure not not owed refund frm IRS in 2000 . | hard to talk to programmers - debugging very time consuming . one change can have unintended consequences | OMB leaving 1 mo 9912 for testing . ArthurGross IRS has 110 page memo on Web - plea for contractor to handle . Sen Bennet subcommittee : Euro - has no idea | can`t get freight cars to go by scanner - too congested . Phone overload when people want chks . EY told cmtte : .4 chance of recession . .22 of electricity Nuc. Newest 15 yrs old . CIO NRC : GE says safety syss not date dependent . But other things could cause wrong input . Embedded chips . Fed Gov Kelly started working on in `95 . BillGates is just building Bullet proof home w underground driveway . 5 stages of remediation . Lawyers w be asking where were we . CEOs confess know nothing abt CIO tek . but must know CFO money . |13:34| John : w Moynahan - 30M proprietary lines of code .GAO has found another 34 M lines of code involved in paying SS . Defense is a disaster . WSJ doesn`t take seriously . EY : very few recognize how tek patched together like MIR . IRS says we don`t know what we don`t know . Bank needing to check if borrowers Y2K exposed . Aud : To solve : just tie to global warming . |( | TS ts |>| 9711101106 | Right after the Yardeni`s talk , I pointed out to the fellow who made this comment that at least the Y2K problem had a real foundation . Cf : CoSy/Views/Warm )| Steve Roach (?) befuddlement w whether productivity increasing . Only way can have macro econ #s make sense . S&P 500 Sales % employee increasing .05 - .06 since `80s . |( | TS ts |>| 9711101042 | Just noticed that in my list of annual dates , I had the Anniversy of the Brooklyn Bridge outside my window listed as , essentially , 870102 . To make it good for the centurys , just 1 additional digit is needed : 8870102 , to uniquely represent it , not 2 . It should also be pointed out , that Y2K alarmists seem to be very focused on , essentially either the ASCII character , or the BinaryCodedDecimal representation of dates . Perhaps the majority of systems store dates in some more compact form . This has 2 implications : 0 : Many date overflows will occur ( and in fact have occured ) on system specific dates having nothing to do with the turn of the century . See CoSy/Views/Y2K ; 1 : There is plenty of space at the locations holding current such date representations to hold century information .
|15:34| RealTel USRT - selling | couple 100 k shares @ 4.5 for mkt cap of 30M . |15:42| PerryRuda co-founder : largest landloard of telecom sites Telecom tenants . need for Access to real Estate : Telecom giants w pay Billions for access to properties . Site Acq 1 @ time is costly . 2 - 3 k antenna sites for manhattan cell sites - w 2-3k NY lawyers . RealTel Natnl Antenna Grid - pool of sites - master leased . 1 landlord , 1 lease , 1 contact , 1 check . Giants lining up to gain access . JordanGlasoff : `90 telecom dereg act - gave landlord right to charge for access . 100k`s antenas need to be deployed . RealTel has cornered mkt from major REITs etc . All sign same lease . Sam Zel WayneHeizenga NealBloom , 2k properties , another 8700 in negotiation . further 27000 have proposals . RT provieds mngt , RE , legal professionals . Mngt RE background CRA telecom site selection co - provide RF engineering consulting . Landlords don`t have expertise . MasterLease specific to telcom access issues . Pure gravy income from waste space . Access to property occupants . Control gateway to tenets of property . charge .01 | expect 100k sites by 2000 . need 150k new antennas in next 5 yrs . Estimating .05 mkt penetration . 5 yr lease w 4x renewal to telecom . + 250k$ for station instalation . studying L.A. - Brasil & Argentina . |16:7|