( 20080724 | Around June I finally gained an understanding of the appropriate analysis for colored balls .
The statements about gray bodies remains the same but I now see colored balls will come to a different mean
temperature depending on the difference in correlation between them and their source of irradiance and their
"night" side . Given that CO2 has essentially just 2 narrow absorption bands which are pretty fully saturated
at consentrations which are too low to sustain plant life ( about half the current concentration ) , I expect
the quantitative effect of changes in the current concentration to be very small . But Now I know how to calculate it . )
Personal Experimental results :
A natural ping pong ball and one painted Flat Black asymptote to within one degree K when held in bright sun at 2500m ( 1/3 up in atmosphere ) .
I think doing this experiment correctly in a vacuum would make a gangbusters MythBusters episode.
20070324 : Heartand Conference Follow up . Gerlich & Tscheuschner have detailed physical derivation of my analysis . Am Studying .
20070130 : 2 excellent new articles .
20070311 : 2 more excellent links
20070627 : The arguments against the Global Socialist Warming Fear Mongers is becoming overwhelming . All they have is the Global Statists money and megaphones . Their duplicity and distortions are being continually exposed .
20080125 | Another Junto discussion with Perry Metzger led me to analyse more closely the logic of the Temperature of the Earth discussion on the Wikipedia page on the Stefan Boltzmann law . My arguments on the associated Talk page have caused significant changes in that article already . More is needed . Briefy
The idea that the temperature of an object can depend on its albedo , in particular the 4th root of its albedo , leads to absurdities such as the following : If the inner chamber of a vacuum bottle were coated with magnesium oxide with an albedo of about .9 then on the basis of a 4th root relationship , one would expect it's interior to settle at about 0.56 the temperature of the room the bottle is in , say about -100 centigrade .
Some say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I've tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To say that for distruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Robert Frost
I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.
Michael Crichton : Aliens Cause Global Warming , Caltech Michelin Lecture
It essentially follows from the Zeroth law of thermodynamics which implies that without a source of heat things come to thermal equilibrium with their surroundings that , in particular , the mean surface temperature of the earth is totally determined by the size and temperature of the sun and our distance from it .
The Wikipedia article under the heading Derivation of temperature relation between earth and sun is the first place I have seen the geometry worked out . This provides the null hypothisis against which any claimed deviation of mean global temperature ascribed to changes in the composition of the atmosphere must be measured . Indeed , by Kirchhoff's law of thermal radiation that a poor reflector is a good emitter, and visa versa , I believe NO deviation is possible . The effect of essentially a more insulative atmosphere is warmer nights and in fact suppressed daytime peak temperatures and more uniform global temperature distribution , ie , warmer poles compensated by somewhat cooler tropics . | thu.sep.20050929 |
The bottom line ( from the Wikipedia derivation ) is that the mean temperature of homogeniously colored sphere is given by
I have yet to see anything other than hand waving to explain how any changes to the atmosphere can alter that . Note that this is probably the first place you have seen what must be the Null Hypothesis for any theory of planetary temperature . | thu.aug.20060810 |
--
| 20071002 |
I've given up doing any fancy editing and splicing of the video of the experiment I did last spring with black , white and silver ping pong balls in the Colorado sun last spring . I've just uploaded the last clip I took because it was clouding up and I had completed all the relavant permutations I could think of . The temperatures indicated are pretty typical tho . ( note the thermometer on the left tended to read 0.2c below the others . ) The GW alarmists claim that minute changes in the reflectivity of the planet will make major changes in its mean temperature . I found no difference between a flat black painted and a natural white ping-pong ball and at most about 2c with a "chrome" painted ball . I also got a feeling for what a small change the at most 0.8c increase in temperature this century is . It's hard to get thermometer reading to be stable within less than ~ 0.2c . I'd really like to see this experiment done "professionally" in a vacuum , and I'd really like to see the equations which predict exactly how much heating or cooling different paint jobs will produce . Despite the lifestyles of millions riding on this science , I have failed to find such basic equations anywhere on the web .
--
There is a very substantial seasonal effect due to the asymmetry of distribution of land and ocean and the very reflective Antarctic , and the resulting difference in albedo , of the north and south hemispheres combined with the 23.5 degree tilt of the earth's axis . See this email exchange for a discussion . The note immediately below goes thru the physics .
-- #Perry The very illuminating discussion on "alternative energy" with Perry Metzger , who is far more computationally facile than I am , starts at message 2351 on the NYC Junto group , It first discusses how much solar energy is available at midwinter in New York . Perry computes the value from the basic physics ; I do it by table look up on the web , but our answers agree within a factor of 2 .
Even more interesting is his computation in message 2377 of the temperature of 2 disks with white and black sides , one with its black side facing the sun , and the other with its white side towards the sun . There are just a few more emails in the thread ending with message 2393 , but it is pretty well summarized in my reply , message 2390 .
The evidence is becoming overwhelming that CO2 does NOT affect mean global temperature .
on the other hand , evidence is mounting that it IS making the planet greener .
The only real question is if rationality can prevail before the Global Governments do too much harm .
History’s Verdict
I agree with Professor Richard Lindzen
of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
who said, "future generations
will wonder in bemused amazement
that the early twenty-first century’s
developed world went into hysterical
panic over a globally averaged temperature
increase of a few tenths of a degree,
and, on the basis of gross exaggerations
of highly uncertain computer projections
combined into implausible chains
of inference, proceeded to contemplate a
rollback of the industrial age."
Vaclav Klaus, president , Czech Republic , Human Freedom, Not Climate, Is at Risk in ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE NEWS 2007/09
Discussion, calculations and references and Gore Gored A Science-based response to Al Gore’s Global Warming Commentary in London’s Sunday Telegraph 19 November 2006 . both by Christopher Monckton, 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley
Al Gore and James Hansen remind me of Pinky and the Brain , tho I'm not sure who is which .
Arthur Robinson : Global Energy Rationing "While, therefore, the group of people who have been selected for diminished lives, suffering, and death from energy rationing and the resulting technological decline is larger than that ordinarily associated with genocide, the number of likely deaths is also much larger than in previous genocides. We think the use of this term is appropriate and will not be confusing to the reader."
Reid Bryson "the father of the science of modern climatology."
An Unrepentant Prognosticator Climatologist George Kukla still believes an ice age is likely : "The only thing to worry about global warming is the damage that can be done by worrying. Why are some scientists worried? Perhaps because they feel that to stop worrying may mean to stop being paid."
Interview with Christopher Horner author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and Environmentalism. Interesting history of the "hockey stick"
CO2 and Alarmism S. Fred Singer : ... "By contrast, the federal climate-change program report shows quite clearly that greenhouse models cannot explain the observed patterns of warming. (See esp. Fig. 5.4G at www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport.) This disparity leads to the inescapable conclusion that most of the warming is of non-greenhouse origin and therefore part of a natural climate cycle. ...
"Full committee ... hearing to discuss the role of science in environmental policy making." Michael Crichton , William Gray , Donald R. Roberts , outstanding .
... There is no evidence confirming a positive linkage between the level of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. If there is such a linkage, it is a reverse nature. In other words, it is not carbon dioxide that influences the temperature on Earth, but it just the reverse: temperature fluctuations are caused by solar activity influence the concentration of carbon dioxide.
... Another facet of the project is to determine the economic feasibility of running a farm on wind-generated electricity. That idea is not proving to be promising, according to Kingman.
"It doesn't make sense economically to displace (existing) power on the farm," Kingman said.
Unless a farmer could sell extra power or had grant money, he could not offset the expense of building a turbine and its maintenance and the cost of wiring the wind-power source to the farm, Kingman explained.
Alt Energy Encyclopedia "photovoltaic cell is typically about 9% to 14% for commercially available cells."
Note : I reserve the right to post all
communications I receive or generate to CoSy website for further reflection
. Contact : Bob Armstrong ; About this page :
Feedback
; 719-337-2733 Coherent Systems / 28124 Highway 67 / Woodland Park , Colorado / 80863-9711
/\ /\ Top /\ /\
