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  • © Bob Armstrong

    Mean Global Temperature
    CO2 and O2 are the anabolic and catabolic halves of the respiratory cycle of life .
    What our restoring a little of the carbon from previous lush epochs is doing is speeding the respiration of the biosphere .
    The inevitable compensation for our returning some carbon to the biosphere is an increase in green plant growth .

    Any field of study that has the word science in it probably isn’t.
    Ken Iverson , from Arthur Whitney , Memories of Ken
    ( Temp_planet : ( +/ PartitionOfSphere * TemperatureOfPartition ^ 4 ) ^ % 4 )
    Temp_planet : Temp_sun * squareRoot ( Sun_radius / 2 * Distance )
     Simply summing the energy impinging on the planet gives a temperature 3 times closer to our observed temperature than the maximally biased equation foisted by "climate science" academia . We are about 3% ( 10 centigrade ) warmer than a gray ball in our orbit .

    ArrayProgrammingLanguage implementation of StefanBoltzmann^Kirchhoff for non-uniform gray spheres

    You can't fool all of the people ...

    Common sense dictates that a trace gas needed for life on the planet would not be the cause for destroying life on the planet. Common sense dictates that what has happened before without man can happen again with man. Common sense would dictate that you not believe me, or any one else, but go look for YOURSELF.
     Joe Bastardi , AccuWeather.com
    CO2 is the ultimate "green" gas . It is a grade school fact that every green tree , every blade of grass , indeed all life is ultimately CO2 + H2O combined by sunlight plus a bit of ash and it is proven in both laboratory and practice that plants thrive on more than twice our current 3 or 4 molecules per 10,000 . Life could not have started on earth without a ( 20% ) CO2 rather than O2 atmosphere . Only  photosynthesis converted it to an oxygen atmosphere bouncing along the minimal CO2 necessary to keep the plants alive . So any downside to the few percent of the natural CO2 budget we are restoring to our atmosphere from carbon sequestered in previous incredibly lush epochs must be weighed against this indisputable greening of the planet .
    World class graphic ,by Dr Sherwood Idso . 2 yr old Eldarica pines . Click for almost great .pps

    Is the virtue of lusher forests and agriculture outweighed by the effect of CO2’s couple of spectral lines on the the mean temperature of the planet ?  Classical physics going back to 1859 says the temperature of our planet is inexorably constrained to be about 1/21st whatever temperature the sun decides to be . ( See my Basic Temperature Physics of Radiantly Heated Balls for the computations . ) Calculated & Observed Temperatures of Inner PlanetsAstoundingly , the most ubiquitous explanation of the need for a "greenhouse” effect is based on the false notion that a radiantly heated white ball will come to a lower temperature than if it were black . Perhaps consequentially , it appears impossible to find either quantitative analytical theory or experimental validation of the purported "greenhouse" effect on mean temperature .

    To contemplate imposing enormous costs on the population for the benes and bureaucracies of the anti-life alarmist elite would be literally criminal  without requiring before-hand quantitative experimental verification of the supposed effect of minor changes in atmospheric spectrum on mean temperature . The needed experiments would be quite simple and quick . On the scale of a ping-pong ball the atmosphere is about as thick as a heavy coat of lacquer and whole issue of planetary temperature boils down to the effect of slight changes in its color .
    Relevant spectra | 20110304 | The best graph I've seen showing most of the relevant spectra other than our surface . That CO2 already has little more ability to effect our temperature is shown by the fact that its peaks are already absorbing 100% .
    | 20110318 | Give me tables with these specta , and Il'll calculate their equalibrium temperature . Add the spectrum of the surface and I'll give you the mean temperature of the planet . I'll pay $300 to any student who masters the algorthms and does the calculations . I suggest a good highschool project would be to experimentally confirm the calculations .

    Basically :

    Bob Armstrong speaking at Marty Hertzberg's "Climategate" and Scientific Inquiry presentation
    Click for YouTube ( last portion of 7th part )
    Start with Part 1

    If one draws a sphere around the earth and its atmosphere , Stefan-Boltzmann/Kirchhoff specifies the mean temperature over that sphere as a function of the five millionths of the sky subtended by the sun at around 6000k and the all the rest at near 0 . It works out that objects in our orbit are constrained to be about 1%21 the temperature of the sun . It is a mistaken notion that average Absorptivity=Emissivity ( gray value ) will affect that ratio . I have this basic function now implemented in several Array Programming Languages on my http://CoSy.com and would love to see someone translate it into more common languages like Mathematica or MatLab . It currently handles any angular distribution of gray value , eg , differences between day and night sides , or latitude . I am awaiting indications of outside interest to elaborate the vocabulary to full spectra so that , eg , the extreme which any lumped spectral distribution ( 1.0 correlated with the sun ) could produce , or the calculated effect of some delta in CO2 saturation .

    ( The above would be rejected as gibberish on a realityDenier blog ; their talent sure ain’t basic physics . )

    A couple of major points :
    Lumped earth/atmosphere temperature is linear with sun temperature .  Any nonlinearities within this envelope must cancel by this boundary . We are about 8c warmer than a uniform gray body in our orbit . Any discussion of “runaways” and “feedbacks” macht nichts . The SB/K equation has held up to at most a few percent of earth/sun temperature ratio . The idea that we are at some particular ratio where some nonlinearity occurs is non-sensical .

    It’s useful to keep in mind that the total change in temperature we’ve seen a century is only about 1%300 = 0.33% . I’m delighted that the sun is that constant .

    Boston temperatures with THICKNESS of red line total change in mean in century . by MIT's Richard Lindzen . Click for YouTube .

    Historic TemperaturesThe most ancient "precautionary principle" is "First do no harm" , and "cap and trade" and other less bureaucratic "carbon" taxes are explicitly designed to do harm . So , like prescribing chemotherapy , you better make sure the patient is actually sick first . And it is NOT .

    ( In Manhattan Libertarians' Serf City tabloids included in the bling bags of 2nd Heartland global Climate Conference )

    Basic Temperature Physics of Radiantly Heated Balls *

    * The Null Hypothesis for the earth's temperature
    implements the classic Stefan-Boltzmann and Kirchoff laws which very tightly constrain the mean temperature of the planet . The vocabulary has been verified in K and also translated to the somewhat more accessible language J by Mike Day . See the Forum .

    Extending the implementation to spectra so that the effect of changes in the saturation of CO2's couple of skinny spectral lines can be quantitatively and experimentally tested is quite straight forward . If you'd like to support getting it done quickly , get in touch . -- Bob A .

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    ( 20080724 | Around June I finally gained an understanding of the appropriate analysis for colored balls . The statements about gray bodies remains the same but I now see colored balls will come to a different mean temperature depending on the difference in correlation between them and their source of irradiance and their "night" side . Given that CO2 has essentially just 2 narrow absorption bands which are pretty fully saturated at concentrations which are too low to sustain plant life ( about half the current concentration ) , I expect the quantitative effect of changes in the current concentration to be very small . But Now I know how to calculate it . )
    NB. : As indicated here , before this time I had not figured out the relationship between the correlatons of an object's spectrum with those of its heat sources and sinks . I therefore did not see how a colored ball could be hotter than the gray body ( black body ) temperature and had some comments that I had not seen an argument how that could happen . It says more about the dificulty in finding a lucid , quantitative , public domain , correct explanation of the physics than any thing else .


    Tuned for FireFox . If you can't see , click http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-swoy2WKm0 .
    Personal Experimental results : A natural ping pong ball and one painted Flat Black asymptote to within one degree K when held in bright sun at 2500m ( 1/3 up in atmosphere ) .
    I think doing this experiment correctly in a vacuum would make a
    gangbusters MythBusters episode.


    20070324 : Heartand Conference Follow up . Gerlich & Tscheuschner have detailed physical derivation of my analysis . Am Studying .

    20070130 : 2 excellent new articles .

    20070311 : 2 more excellent links

    20070627 : The arguments against the Global Socialist Warming Fear Mongers is becoming overwhelming . All they have is the Global Statists money and megaphones . Their duplicity and distortions are being continually exposed .

    20080330 | Proposal distributed at Heartland NYC Climate Conference : The Experimental Physics of Marbles

    20080125 | Another Junto discussion with Perry Metzger led me to analyse more closely the logic of the Temperature of the Earth discussion on the Wikipedia page on the Stefan Boltzmann law . My arguments on the associated Talk page have caused significant changes in that article already . More is needed . Briefy

    The idea that the temperature of an object can depend on its albedo , in particular the 4th root of its albedo , leads to absurdities such as the following : If the inner chamber of a vacuum bottle were coated with magnesium oxide with an albedo of about .9 then on the basis of a 4th root relationship , one would expect it's interior to settle at about 0.56 the temperature of the room the bottle is in , say about   -100   centigrade .

    20070629 | Now out , My extended Logic of Liberty column :
    The War Against CO2 ( HTML )   in the Manhattan Libertarian's Serf City

    Some say the world will end in fire,
    Some say in ice.
    From what I've tasted of desire
    I hold with those who favor fire.
    But if it had to perish twice,
    I think I know enough of hate
    To say that for destruction ice
    Is also great
    And would suffice.
    Robert Frost
    I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.
    Michael Crichton : Aliens Cause Global Warming , Caltech Michelin Lecture

    "hits the nail on the head"

    Singer & Avery
    Meltdown : Predictable Distortion
    of Global Warming
    Patrick J. Michael

    Wind Power has a long History

    Windmills at the
    1893 Chicago
    Columbian Exposition

    Mandating Renewable Energy: It’s Not Easy Being Green by MICHAEL HEBERLING , The Freeman , 2006 10
    A discussion with Perry Metzger on the NYC Junto Yahoo discussion group about the viability of photovoltaics led to a reference to the Wikipedia article on Black Body Radiation .

    It essentially follows from the Zeroth law of thermodynamics which implies that without a source of heat things come to thermal equilibrium with their surroundings that , in particular , the mean surface temperature of the earth is totally determined by the size and temperature of the sun and our distance from it .

    The Wikipedia article under the heading Derivation of temperature relation between earth and sun is the first place I have seen the geometry worked out . This provides the null hypothisis against which any claimed deviation of mean global temperature ascribed to changes in the composition of the atmosphere must be measured . Indeed , by Kirchhoff's law of thermal radiation that a poor reflector is a good emitter, and visa versa , I believe NO deviation is possible . The effect of essentially a more insulative atmosphere is warmer nights and in fact suppressed daytime peak temperatures and more uniform global temperature distribution , ie , warmer poles compensated by somewhat cooler tropics . | thu.sep.20050929 |

    The bottom line ( from the Wikipedia derivation ) is that the mean temperature of homogeniously colored sphere is given by

    Temp_planet = Temp_sun * squareRoot ( Sun_radius / 2 * Distance )

    I have yet to see anything other than hand waving to explain how any changes to the atmosphere can alter that . Note that this is probably the first place you have seen what must be the Null Hypothesis for any theory of planetary temperature . | thu.aug.20060810 |
    | 20071002 | I've given up doing any fancy editing and splicing of the video of the experiment I did last spring with black , white and silver ping pong balls in the Colorado sun last spring . I've just uploaded the last clip I took because it was clouding up and I had completed all the relavant permutations I could think of . The temperatures indicated are pretty typical tho . ( note the thermometer on the left tended to read 0.2c below the others . ) The GW alarmists claim that minute changes in the reflectivity of the planet will make major changes in its mean temperature . I found no difference between a flat black painted and a natural white ping-pong ball and at most about 2c with a "chrome" painted ball . I also got a feeling for what a small change the at most 0.8c increase in temperature this century is . It's hard to get thermometer reading to be stable within less than ~ 0.2c . I'd really like to see this experiment done "professionally" in a vacuum , and I'd really like to see the equations which predict exactly how much heating or cooling different paint jobs will produce . Despite the lifestyles of millions riding on this science , I have failed to find such basic equations anywhere on the web .

    There is a very substantial seasonal effect due to the asymmetry of distribution of land and ocean and the very reflective Antarctic , and the resulting difference in albedo , of the north and south hemispheres combined with the 23.5 degree tilt of the earth's axis . See this email exchange for a discussion . The note immediately below goes thru the physics .
    The very illuminating discussion on "alternative energy" with Perry Metzger , who is far more computationally facile than I am , starts at message 2351 on the NYC Junto group , It first discusses how much solar energy is available at midwinter in New York . Perry computes the value from the basic physics ; I do it by table look up on the web , but our answers agree within a factor of 2 .

    Even more interesting is his computation in message 2377 of the temperature of 2 disks with white and black sides , one with its black side facing the sun , and the other with its white side towards the sun . There are just a few more emails in the thread ending with message 2393 , but it is pretty well summarized in my reply , message 2390 .

    Mostly Correspondence going back to 1997


    !! Great !!
    GlobalWarming/Poem by Chris Garvey

    innit4money : Gimme More Global Warming
    The Onion :
    New Eco-Friendly Packaging Triggers Boom In Guilt-Free Littering


    The evidence is becoming overwhelming that CO2 does NOT affect mean global temperature .
    on the other hand , evidence is mounting that it IS making the planet greener .

    The only real question is if rationality can prevail before the Global Governments do too much harm .

    History’s Verdict
    I agree with Professor Richard Lindzen
    of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
    who said, "future generations
    will wonder in bemused amazement
    that the early twenty-first century’s
    developed world went into hysterical
    panic over a globally averaged temperature
    increase of a few tenths of a degree,
    and, on the basis of gross exaggerations
    of highly uncertain computer projections
    combined into implausible chains
    of inference, proceeded to contemplate a
    rollback of the industrial age."
    Vaclav Klaus, president , Czech Republic ,
    Human Freedom, Not Climate, Is at Risk

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