15| NikkeiBP;Japan"BigBang" . Waldorf . 212-319-4125 .
  ============================: MON.JUL,980713 :============================
|15:5| Plugged in | FredKatayama CNN Intros done :
 Big Bang : Fin mkt was shelterd . Attitudes chnging ( doing broadcast spiel
 ) Line up at CitiBank for higher interest rates . Cargill buying RE cheap
 Bond yields  .0025 | some looking WW - US -  | .12 in eqtys  vs US .35
 est bank crisis 2 3 x US S&L .
 Yoshimura : Nikkei BP circulation 300k . assume > 3 x pass along .
  BB opened mkt . PM Hashimoto administration w help .
|15:14| KeithStock , VP ATKearny , ex- McKinsey & Andersen . :
  Termoil being dealt w by mainly US & Russia . PM going .
  AlanGreenspan & MichaelJordan(Westinghouse/CBS) there . Chicago humor .
 IanFlemming : ChiteChityBangBang . This ~~Big~ .
 Advent of instability & change of administration . Long term BB
  modernization w have more impact .
 BB really series of steps : Looser FX & commission freedom , general
 deregulation . W make Japan robust vibrant mkt . substantial opportunity for
 foreign . Role of BB in evo of World Fin Inst . : 0) Individuals w be able
 to act as own brokers . w seek direct deposit w US bank w FDIC protection .
 New transaction teks . Disintermediation of funds on Global Scale . 1)
 Balance Sheets w grow , Fin inst highly leveraged , eg , .1 assets ; .5 , or
 in OECD countries 80T$ direct invested . 2) Lots of Amer Banks w jump in ; a
 few w survive .
 ATK just did bank w JapanSecurity : Offer mainly | Japan portfolios .12
 foreign , US .1 | exception GB .33 foreign | Expect Japan external
 investment w 2x . Spread too great to ignore . BB cured outflow hurdles .
 1T$ expected outflow . $25B additional rev to US banks . Next to ECU , BB
 biggest thing going on .
 Japan mainly domestic loan mkt . Bank sys less efficient than many (
 Switzerland worst ) .
 Mutual Funds w be aided by BB .
|15:38| Here some online brokers are working on direct foreign
|15:39| Dr NoritoshiMabuchi Keio U : NYC run because red just mean dont walk .
 In Japan not being chased by fear of Law Suit .
 If asset value inflated , When Hashimoto planned to restructure mkt by 2001
 End of sucessful sys in place since WW2 . `97 Opened structure of Bank & Ins
 Holding Cos . Amendments Corp Tax not yet done . NTT privatization causing
 lots of need for exception .
 Japan must report profit of each subsidiary .
 Bank law changed after 55 yrs this APR . More Translucent . More freedom .
 Deposit Ins law : Fund strengthened w $70B from BofJ . Way too late .
 Brokerage fees liberalized by Mar 2000 . Basic nature of BB to modernize ,
 but taking long time . Can Mkt wait ? If not , may be desasterous for many
 Japan in short - mid term .
 Stabilization hard to define : BoJ def circular : Obviously is unstable .
 8B.Y to buy failed bank . Depositers moving to safer Postal acnts .
 Expulsion of Daiwa from US turning point . New plan to buy up insolvent
 loans & banks . Was scheduled to be deliverd yesterday . Would not stabilize
 anyway . 3 Points , conclusion .  30hr flight deserves longer speech ..
 : basic structure w remain same , but mechanisms need to be made World
 Competitive . Tokyo mkt w be reinvigorated by inroads of Foreign Firms .
 Needs more competitive Finacial Multinationals .
|16:1| RobertA.Feldman MorganStanley Tokyo : Ex FedNY . | Japan : the other
 shoe drops : Quicker to use just tongue than Computer display .
  Demography & Productivity over nxt 30yr .
  Machinery orders down .04 last mo . Expect GDP down .0007(?) last 2 yrs .
  Forcast .08 busn investment down this yr . Inventories highest in 23 yrs .
  Inventory cuts still ahead |  Housing declining since Oct 96 . looks bad .
  expect  down .04 in `98 |
  Income up just .012 . Taxes just back to `96 levels . All varieties of
  Incomes falling ~ .03 % yr .
 Tailwinds | Public works up . not enough to mean much .
 More headwinds : Instability . Candidates for PM ? Juggler Oguchi ;
  Kashiyama likely construction funding . Voters have spoke : too much
   construction spending , too small cuts . Don`t like public fund injections
   into weak banks . Hashimoto should be thanked for start of BB < `95 .
  View of BB : really abt productivity growth . Pop w fall frm 66M - 54M w
  pop decline of 5M . Need to produce more per person . abt productivity of
  capital .
  Hurdles to reform : 0) Uniform Assesment of assets . some bankrupt had far
    greater assets than declared . Need clear ( SEC ) standards .
   1) external checking , dislosure . of poor catagory 2 loans . has been
    progress .  Need more bank examiners in next several mo .
   2) Prompt Corrective Action : Cap Ratio has to go < 0 before can close
    bank .
   3) Recirculation of assets . Writeoff , but move properties quick .
   4) Access Limits must be tight . BridgeBanks taking over loans
   5) .588 up from .44 vote turnout . Rules must be open & fair .
    Open hearings .
 Very large agenda . Tenn wisdome ' When in hole , stop digging ' . at least
  that done .
 Who pay ? W be done by printing money . Paid like Fed buying Treasuries
  buying RTC bonds .
|16:29| Break | speaker still not here .
|16:47| Richard Koo : Is Japan missunderstood : Also just got here from Tokyo
 8 yrs since Buble . haven`t done RTC in 8 yrs . He been very critical of
 Banking system . World Changed Nov last y . could get 5MY last yr w/o
 colateral . were desparate for Bowerers for fund on deposit .
 Last fall fell into credit crucnt . top 20 banks now 19 had to cut .15 of
 GDP in loans . Like `91 - `93 in US on Cmrcl RE mkt . Bush lost election .
 Weekend horrible in Japan . Exchange rate went from 100 to 140 Y%$ .
 had 40TY of properties had to cover . caused crunch . Vicious cycle just
 gets worse . `89 RTC found plenty of external borrowers . `91-3 - no capital
 to buy assets . Individual vs systemic crisis . Systemic : .9 good borrowers
 can`t roll over . LarrySommers just says kill off bad banks - may create
 Hokaido out of rest of Japan . US came out of `93 . brought fed rate to .03
 . allowed all banks to earn .03 for 2yr .
 Japan rates already as low as can go .  3mo Rate .005 . clear only .011 vs
 ODR Prime .
 Try to increase Bank Capital . Banks bashed by press left & right for taking
 govt money . Banks took 1.8 vs 10T offered by Govt .
 Came up w idea of Bridge Bank to protect good borrowers thru takeover of bad
  banks . May create massive Govt run BridgeBank .
 No money in Deposit Ins Fund . Finally got 17TY in funds . then could force
 banks to disclose to US stds .
 Now banks have no place to hide . must listen to examiners . Have already
 written of 300B$ in loans . Need to arange write-off schedules .
 Don`t have reliable #s . 600 total examiners , only 200 any good .
 1000s trained in US . Examination still too weak .
 13TY in place to recapitalize banks . Hashimoto finally 16TY pkg . but must
 watch value of Yen . 10 yen depreciation causes 30TY credit crunch .
 Can`t expect intervention of Govt to last . but may use to win time .
 All pieces now in place , shouldn`t be too pesimistic .
|17:18| RogerServison Fidelity Investments . Not economist - last thing
 between us and drink . US Mutual fund growth .28 since `82 . 3B to 650 B $
 `70s no growth . Drivers of industry : supply side Bull mkt .
 great returns on financial assets away from Banks . `81 US person had abt as
 much in bank as Japanese does now . Hi correlation between mkt & 40s+ age
 population . have another 12 yrs growth on that measure .
 Move to defined contribution from defined benefit . .35 fund assets from tax
 defered eg 401ks .
 .1-.12 vs .4 invested by Japanese vs American . Tot Japan mkt .5 of Fidelity
 alone . Fidelity guardedly optimistic - if Gov moves frm state to mkt
 capitalism . Permanent Tax cuts . Issues remain in Ins & Brokerage
 industries . Believes lot of foreign cap available if numbers disclosed &
 foreigners dealt w fairly .
 Japan Fin mkt 2nd only to US . Foreign mng  18B of 2908B pension funds .
 Have 3x mkt share in last 3 yr .
 Operate small cap trading desk in Tokyo . Broad retail & joint mkting &
  distribution . MerrilLinch at best only sells .4 own Funds vs others .
  Broad range of products & services .
  Sell thru Nomura , now also Nikko fund . sell tek to back office fund .
 4 Pilot Bank Booth projects . Japan extremely expensive place to do busines
 - 3x cost in Boston . Also complex . Systems inflexible & expensive - hard
 to find programmers . Need to Educate investors . Lack of personal finance
 mags .
 Concerns : Management of Japan Econ . Commitment to DeRegulation .
 Y2K & ECU readyness . Custody services archaic & error prone .
 Notion of managing for shareholder value .
|17:46| Katayama : A lot of Gloom from Fin people , guarded optimism from
 business side :
Qs: | vs Korea - not like Japan - going to open etc right away ? Koreans more
 broke . ATK : Koreans more accepting of outside capital & involvement .
 | Sony Music Fin : benefit from export of Japan savings ? feels these decade
  are revolution in global stds of living . Privatization of assets -
  transition from production loan base to other . Japan has huge investments
  of trade surpluses around world . Now moving to individual decisions .
  Capital Acnts 1250TY financial assets .
 | Only Securities busn , not Commercial banks w save Japan ? Koo : should
  not close Banks too quick . Was on Fed desk when Mex crisis . could not
  allow even 1 bank declare Mexico insolvent . Agree w b Security industry to
  rescue . Capital mkt underdeveloped vs US . Transaction costs need to be
  reduced , need better disclosure .
 | FredKatayama : Why will Bridge banks Fail ? Mabuchi : Does big bank
  deserve bailout ?
|18:8| NikkeiBusinesPubs Established 2 McGraw Hill 29 yrs ago : Video :
 Nikkei == JapanEconomy . 41M copies of all pubs % yr .
 623 staff writers . Audited circulatio . World PC-Expo .
  Nikkei busn Mag 300k weekly circ . on web too .
  11TY  = 85B$ .
|18:15| Tom Yamamoto Pres NikkeiBP , ex Newsweek . Opportunities in Fin &
 else where .

  = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

|20:15| There is a 9-9 pedestrian barrier @ N side 49 & Park by WA . which I
 can see NO logical use for since Park Ave 2way . Only direction optimizaed
 is turning N , Right from 49 which is 1 way West |20:22| But there`s some
 ' TRANSITWAY ' (?) sign saying all traffic must turn left 8-6 M-F except
  busses & medalian taxis w passengers . I see no sense except Guliani`s
  drive to sheep herd .
|20:30| One of the great public skulpturs of NY , BaerStearns` interlocking
 clockwork donuts ( torii ) has been removed from 245 Park by the Helmsley
 Building .